do your supplements actually work — or are they just going down the drain?

navigating the supplement industrial complex, plus the surprising driver of demand for handbags, and the most confusing jacket trend this season

They say you should never meet your heroes — or unhinged Internet personalities. But do you like wine? Do you like food? Come see me on December 4th! Use VORACIOUS for $15 off.

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This week, I’m answering one of the most common questions I get: should I be taking {insert powder here}? While my Berlin clubbing days are over, I find myself asking the same questions: is it real? do you trust who sold it to you? what happens if you take too much?

On this latest edition of “wtf is up?” we’re getting into the Wild World of Supplements: where anyone can be Wonka.

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The TL;DR on Supplements

• the majority of people who research and take supplements are already healthy: a pill won’t do much

• the placebo effect is real: if you believe your supp stack, your vitamin cocktail, or the handful of pills you choke down works — you will probably feel better

• the basics do more than anything in a bottle: an apple and 8 hours of sleep will do more than $100 of pills (in most cases)

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Supplement Industrial Complex

Big Business

Humans have always longed for the promise of a “magic pill.” From the fountain of youth, radium tonics, literal snake oil, cocaine-laced sodas, we’ve all been looking for the same thing: to look, feel, and be better, without having to put in any of the work.

Supplements are big business — and only getting bigger. In 2024, the market was estimated at $190B in 2024 and is expected to grow to at least $400B by 2034. The primary growth drivers:

1. biohackers: thank you, Huberman

2. subscription wellness companies spending all their money on ads: Ritual, Athletic Greens, Seed

3. we’re all stressed: Magnesium L-threonate, Lion’s Mane, Ashwagandha

Regulatory Environment

The industry has relatively weak regulatory controls. The FDA doesn’t need to approve supplements, instead, manufacturers can print whatever claims and safety information they want on a label and slap it on the jar (or single-day package).

This means that:

1. it’s super easy to bring a new supplement to market

2. manufacturers don’t need to prove anything

3. it’s hard for us (consumers) to figure out what we need, why, and how to get it safely

4. over time, it becomes hard for brands to differentiate

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The Science

A lot of supplements are snake oil. But some do work:

1. if you’re deficient: particularly in Iron, Vitamin D, and Magnesium

2. if they actually end up in your bloodstream: determined by the “bioavailability”

   1. formulation > brand: check the fine print (e.g., magnesium glycinate will help you sleep; magnesium oxide will help you poop)

   2. delivery system: how it’s packaged shapes how much survives digestion (e.g., probiotics’ strain survival can vary from 60% to 0% depending on formulation and coating)

3. the time you take them:

   1. fat-soluble vitamins with food

   2. iron on an empty stomach

   3. some minerals don’t play well with others

   4. stimulatory (e.g., B Vitamins in the morning) vs. sedating (e.g., melatonin in the evening)

I mapped popular pills and potions across two variables — evidence strength and hype level — so you can see which ones are worth swallowing.

Note: the folks at Express Checkout did a great dive on magnesium and the future bioavailability battleground.

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3 S’s of Supplements

1. Safety: Your drug dealer in your 20s had better safety standards and more reliable reviews

2. Sourcing: Look for third-party certifiers (USP, NSF, Informed Choice) and stay away from anything with a “proprietary blend.” Good recipe developers always reveal their secrets

3. Stacking: There’s a new “stack” everyone is talking about — and it’s not Substack — it’s the “supp stack.” You can get your stack analyzed, traced, and optimized wellness experts like Mark Hyman, functional doctors, or good ole ChatGPT. IMHO, this isn’t a time to “do your own research.” It’s time to make an appointment with your PCP

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5 Supplements that Don’t Come in a Jar

but immediately make you feel better:

1. extra cheese: an instant mood-boosting sprinkle

2. the smell of a baby’s (or kitten’s) head: instant soothe

3. trying a new vegetable: imagine your microbiome screaming “thank you”

4. waking up on the right side of the bed: but if someone could bottle and sell that feeling…

5. getting/receiving a non-creepy compliment: pay it forward

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Chart of the Week

86% of GLP-1 users say they feel like a different person since starting the medication — and want to celebrate it with a handbag (Circana).

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Other Stuff to Chew On

Serious

• The GLP-1 craze has had every brand going all in protein — but doctors keep warning that we should all be eating more fiber.

• A SNAP incentive pilot program in Rhode Island offers modest evidence that the carrot (literally) may be more effective than the stick (bans) in improving people’s diets. The state gave participants a $0.50 credit for every dollar spent on fresh fruits and vegetables. Participants whose baseline intake included higher amounts of fruits and vegetables significantly increased their intake through the program.

• Amazon is officially integrating Whole Foods (and its 100K employees) into its business. I’d love to talk to someone on their HR team (off the record, of course) about how they’re planning to create a “unified employee experience” across their employee profiles.

• Wonder continues to gobble up new businesses. The latest: Sweetgreen’s troubled robot-salad-maker project, Spyce. This makes sense to me.

• TSG Consumer took a minority stake in Pura Vida with big plans to expand the 40-location wellness chain. Don’t order the Caesar salad — it’s the wort I’ve had in years.

• Fruitist recently raised $150M and so I tried the giant blueberries. They were mealy.

• It’s honeynut squash season:

  

Fun

• Nike hosted a soup pop-up and the spoon is the only thing that could get me to join a run club.

• What I would give to attend Joan Didion’s Thanksgiving. And not just because I love a sweet potato soufflé.

• Butter is back! And more political than ever.

• What about an Admin Night but someone else does the admin and I provide snacks?

• Meadow Lane — New York’s much-delayed and much-maligned Erewhon — is finally open. I went yesterday and have thoughts. I’ll sell you my reusable grocery bag if you want to pretend you’ve debased yourself to stand in line in this weather.

• My algorithm has been overrun by people in jackets filled with food. Nailed it.

what would you fill yours with?

Coming next: how to save the day, how to actually give good gifts, and my never-ending Trello board of ideas,

Sophia